3 Southern Provinces Tracking Log

Week Ending February 7, 2010

Download News Feb 1 Feb 7 2010

Week Ending January 31, 2010

Big news week, virtually all about the GT200 bomb detector.  This looks to be a classic emperor's clothes / placebo / magic spell story, with all the embarrassment and pain that goes with that.  There is, it seems, no simple, point and shoot cure for hidden bomb syndrome.  You might want go into the Post for one of its stories and scroll down to the tweets and comments.  Official Thailand is having trouble with this, even the usually hard headed Dr. Phornthip.  The country's epistemology does not emphasize double blind, placebo controlled testing of that which we want to believe.  And then there's all that money and the opportunities it represents for a couple of percent here and there.

Download News Jan 25 Jan 31 2009

Week Ending January 24, 2010

http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2010/01/21/anatomy-of-southern-thailand’s-insurgency-some-preliminary-insights/

The URL above connects to a short piece on New Mandala with a second link to a longer analysis by the same writer.  It is a nice demonstration of what empirical methods can unearth, even in an insurgency in which one side strives to maintain silence.

Download News Jan 17 Jan 24 2009

Week Ending January 17, 2010

Let's start with this (URL below).  The Ai-ba-yae shooting suspect turned himself in in Bangkok within the last couple of days.  The piece, which is from Isra News, the Thai Journalists Association arm for the insurgency in the south, gives a summary history of the incident and the investigation and then asks some very good questions about timing and upcoming OIC (Organization of Islamic Countries) discussions in which Thailand is to participate and what a good thing it is indeed that this man comes forward at this time.  The implications are that 1) the man has been accessible for arrest the entire time, 2) his accomplices are known and not pursued, 3) a deal has been done to get him in now in time for the OIC meetings.  We will of course watch to see.  The English language press did not pick up this line of thinking.

http://www.isranews.org/isranews/index.php?option=com_content&view=section&layout=blog&id=4&Itemid=6

Download News Jan 10 Jan 17 2009

Week Ending January 10, 2010

Download News Jan 03 Jan 10 2009

Week Ending January 3, 2010

Download News Dec 28 2009 Jan 03 2009.pages

Week Ending December 27, 2009

http://voicefromthais.wordpress.com/2009/12/

 Download News Dec 21 Dec 27 2009

Week Ending December 20, 2009

The Crisis Group report, it turns out, is quite good on some of the intricacies of the structure of government and military organization in the South.

Download News Dec 14 Dec 20 2009

Week Ending December 13, 2009

Two big events this week, the Malaysian Prime Minister's visit to Bangkok and a subsequent visit to the South itself.  There is a a great deal of coverage; one of the better pieces is late in the pdf (pp 66-67) from Asia Sentinel.  The second big event was the release of a new Crisis Group report on the South; this one calls for a more active political strategy on the part of the government.  I miss the old Crisis Group researchers, Francesca Lawa Davies and her cohorts, who worked harder to elucidate facts than offer advice.  One theme in the new report that is a little new -- and I confess that I have not read it through yet -- is that the great amount of military spending and military directed development spending is creating a huge opportunity for corruption, the kind of corruption that can make the insurgency somewhat indispensable.  See pages 38-44 for a long piece by Brian McCartan from Asia Times that has some related material.

Download ICG_Thailand_Moving Towards a Political Solution

Download News Dec 7 Dec 13 2009

Week Ending December 6, 2009

Download News Nov 30 Dec 06 2009